Simona Malovaná

Research

Publications, working papers and ongoing work.

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August 2026Work In Progress

State-Dependent Effects of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures

Work in progress

Macroprudential & housing

Using household-level survey data from 22 European countries, collected in four waves between 2010 and 2022, I examine whether the distributional effects of tightening borrower-based macroprudential measures vary across housing and mortgage market conditions. I focus on how such tightening affects lower- and middle-income households in markets characterized by different real house price dynamics and mortgage market structures, with particular emphasis on identifying the underlying transmission channels.

March 2026Work In Progress

Flight from the Front Line: Geopolitical Risk, Distance, and Capital Flow Dynamics

with Martin Hodula, Jan Janků

Work in progress / CNB Research Brief 1/2026

Climate, geopolitics & risk

Using narrative-validated geopolitical conflict episodes and monthly portfolio flow data for 40 advanced and emerging economies over 1995–2024, we study how geopolitical shocks reallocate international capital through a spatial exposure channel. We document a clear distance gradient: after the onset of conflict, net equity flows decline sharply in economies close to the epicenter and increase in more distant countries, consistent with a flight-to-safety reallocation. Net debt flows follow a similar spatial pattern but adjust more gradually, reflecting slower balance-sheet and rollover dynamics. Exchange rates react immediately, with currencies of proximate economies depreciating and those of more distant economies appreciating. Gross-flow decompositions suggest that the rapid equity response is mainly driven by foreign investors, while the debt response reflects both weaker foreign inflows and resident retrenchment.