Work in progress

— Flight from the Front Line: Geopolitical Risk, Distance, and Capital Flow Dynamics
(with Martin Hodula and Jan Janků)

Using narrative-validated geopolitical conflict episodes and monthly portfolio flow data for 40 advanced and emerging economies over 1995–2024, we study how geopolitical shocks reallocate international capital through a spatial exposure channel. We document a clear distance gradient: after the onset of conflict, net equity flows decline sharply in economies close to the epicenter and increase in more distant countries, consistent with a flight-to-safety reallocation. Net debt flows follow a similar spatial pattern but adjust more gradually, reflecting slower balance-sheet and rollover dynamics. Exchange rates react immediately, with currencies of proximate economies depreciating and those of more distant economies appreciating. Gross-flow decompositions suggest that the rapid equity response is mainly driven by foreign investors, while the debt response reflects both weaker foreign inflows and resident retrenchment.

— State-Dependent Effects of Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures

Using household-level survey data from 22 European countries, collected in four waves between 2010 and 2022, I examine whether the distributional effects of tightening borrower-based macroprudential measures vary across housing and mortgage market conditions. I focus on how such tightening affects lower- and middle-income households in markets characterized by different real house price dynamics and mortgage market structures, with particular emphasis on identifying the underlying transmission channels.